Mortgage News Daily

• Not as Bad as it Could Have Been December 20, 2024
  Not as Bad as it Could Have Been After Wednesday's Fed-driven sell-off, it was unlikely if not impossible that bonds wouldn't end up saying they had a bad week.  That is certainly still the case, but after Friday, it's not as bad as it could have been.  PCE inflation came in at 0.1% at the […]
• Mortgage Rates Recover Some of The Lost Ground December 20, 2024
  The week's big story is still the big jump in rates that took place after Wednesday's Fed announcement.  And while rates remain noticeably elevated on the week due to that jump, they're set to end the week at slightly less elevated levels. Credit this morning's inflation data for that development! Part of Wednesday's Fed Day […]
• Stronger Start After Cooler PCE, But Don't Expect Miracles December 20, 2024
  This week's biggest to-do in terms of economic reports was this morning's PCE inflation data.  The fact that the Fed just said it was shifting its primary focus away from the labor market and back toward inflation made PCE all the more interesting.  Thankfully, it came out lower than expected  at the core level, both in […]
• Fairly Uneventful Follow-Up to Fed Day December 19, 2024
  Fairly Uneventful Follow-Up to Fed Day Considering everything that transpired yesterday, today's follow-up was about as calm as we could have hoped for.  Bonds lost ground, but the losses were focused on the long end of the curve.  That limited the damage for MBS, which have been hanging out with the middle of the curve […]
• If You're Struggling to Understand This Week's Mortgage Rate Spike, This is For You December 19, 2024
  We received some anonymous feedback regarding recent rate commentary that serves as a good reminder that not everyone may be picking up what we're putting down, or worse yet, picking up things that we never put down in the first place.   We spend a lot of time talking about how the bond market prices in […]
• Highest Existing Home Sales Since March December 19, 2024
  Just in time for the big jump in interest rates seen after yesterday's Fed announcement, the latest Existing Home Sales data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows sales at the highest seasonally adjusted pace since March.  Compared to the same time last year, sales are up 6.1%--the best year over year improvement since […]
• Non-QM Servicing, HELOC, POS Products; FHA News; Rate React to Fed's New Dots December 19, 2024
  When I see a headline with “housing” and “crash” in it, I think it is merely clickbait, and the author is trying to attract readers. For example: The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) reported on the performance of first-lien mortgages in the federal banking system during the third quarter of 2024. The […]
• Weaker Momentum Continues, Regardless of Data December 19, 2024
  The takeaway from yesterday's Fed announcement was twofold.  First, the Fed is much closer to being done cutting rates than it anticipated in September. This accounts for the sharp sell-off in bonds and stocks.  The second takeaway is simply a confirmation of our recent change of heart regarding inflation data.  Powell noticeably downplayed the need […]
• Dots and Powell Were Much Less Friendly Than Markets Expected December 18, 2024
  Dots and Powell Were Much Less Friendly Than Markets Expected We knew the bond market was expecting a hawkish shift in the dot plot (the chart that shows each Fed member's expectation for the Fed Funds Rate in the coming months/years), and while there is now easy way to know exactly how big the expected […]
• Mortgage Rates Jump Abruptly Higher After The Fed's Rate Cut December 18, 2024
  If anyone needed any further convincing that a Fed rate cut is no guarantee of lower mortgage rates, today is a great piece of evidence.  Perhaps "great" is the wrong word.  There was nothing great about the mortgage rate movement following today's Fed rate cut. The average lender is at least 0.20% higher than earlier […]